Aloha Everyone,
The March 2018 Griggs report is in.
The purpose of the Griggs Report is to provide the reader with accurate market data that gives an up-to-date view of the real estate market trends in N. Kona and Hawaii Island. Price Direction and Rate of Price Change are important indicators most are looking. However price data is based on past sales. Current market inventory levels and pending sale trends show more current trends and give clues as to future price direction and rate of change. The report uses the “Pending Ratio”, the ratio of Pending Sales to Active Listing Inventory as a measure of this current supply/demand dynamic. By following the Pending Ratio’s over time the report uses charts to illustrate the trends. The higher the ratio number, the tighter or stronger the market demand versus supply.
There are several new recovery highs in this latest report.
The latest data from Hawaii Information Service indicates the Residential market very active. Inventory is far less than a year ago. Current inventory stands at 168. The best news is the Pending Ratio has reached a new recovery high of 70. Median Price has resumed an increasing trend. This represents a +7% increase from the previous 12 months sales. The strong demand should continue to push prices higher.
The price range data at the top of page 2 shows a couple of recovery firsts. The Pending Ratio has moved from Sellers’ market to Peak in the $500,000 to $700,000 price range and from Neutral market to Sellers’ market in the $900,000 to $ 1.5M price ranges. The number of 12-month sales in the over $4.0M price range is at new recovery high of 31.
The Hawaii Island Chart shows the seasonal increase in pending ratio is happening early this year. Hopefully this increasing trend continues as we move through the winter season.
Overall the distressed property inventory on the market continues a decline at a very slow pace. The Percentage of MLS listings that are either REO or Short Sales island wide is unchanged from last year. It now stands at 10% of all listings. In 2012 approximately 40% of the listing inventory was either REO or Short Sales.
Condo Pending Ratio has taken a nice upswing in the last month thanks to declining inventory and increased Pending Sales. This should cause condo prices to move higher. Condo prices have only moved up slightly from a year ago as the $300,000 price level seem to be tops for many buyers.
Recent Land data shows a weaker market than Residential and Condo. The Pending Ratio and Average and Median Prices show a decline from a year ago.
Page 6 is the Pending Ratio Summary page. It offers a quick glance of the Pending Ratio trend for N. Kona Res., Condo, Land and Hawaii Island. The right half of the table shows the various price range ratios. The Pending Ratios are showing strong positive numbers over 2017. Hawaii Island Pending Ratio has reached Seller’s market designation of 50 for the first time since the recovery began.
The Page 7 Kona Residential Price chart since 1972 has been updated with the new 2017 data. This maintains a data pool of similar homes many of which have resold over the years. The total number of sales that make up the data pool now stands at 7,370 in the 23 subdivisions in the study. The year/year price change for this Mid-level housing group for 2017 is $587,100, up from 2016’s $582,900. This represents a 1% price increase for 2017. This does coincide with the price change data for land, which is the basis for real estate values. Land values on average for 2017 are up +1% from 2016. I would appreciate any input from readers of the report.
The Kona vs. West Coast will resume when more current data becomes available.
For a full copy of the Griggs report please email Eddie Underwood at eddie.underwood65@gmail.com or call 808-345-9797.
The Griggs Report is graciously published and provided to brokers and real estate professionals semi-monthly by Michael B. Griggs, PB, GRI
