The purpose of the Griggs Report is to provide the reader with accurate market data that gives an up-to-date view of the real estate market trends in N. Kona and Hawaii Island. Price Direction and Rate of Price Change are important indicators most are looking for. However price data is based on past sales. Current market inventory levels and pending sale trends show more current trends and give clues as to future price direction and rate of change. The report uses the “Pending Ratio”, the ratio of Pending Sales to Active Listing Inventory as a measure of this current supply/demand dynamic. By following the Pending Ratio’s over time the report uses charts to illustrate the trends. The higher the ratio number, the tighter or stronger the market demand versus supply.
The latest data from Hawaii Information Service for N. Kona residential market continues to show a tightening market. Inventory is at the lowest level for this date since the stats were first reported. Pending sales are strong and probably would be higher if it weren’t for the lack of inventory. The current data trend shows several similarities to the peak demand years of 2003 and 2004. Eventually price rose to peak price in 2006-7 and the cycle ended. It will be very interesting to see if that same pattern plays out in the next few years? Median Price is now up an unsustainable +16% and 30 day sales are at or near recovery peak of 64.
The price range data at the top of page 2 shows prices ranges up to $1.5M are in the PEAK demand category. There are only 26 homes now listed below $700,000.
The Hawaii Island Residential Pending Ratio had rebounded sharply since April and continues to climb thanks to upswing in the East HI ratio. West HI ratio has flattened.
The Charts 5 and Chart 6 related to the distressed property shows very low levels of distressed properties on the market. This chart will be updated December 31.
The Condo stats are showing the effects of lack of tourist traffic. Year/Year Sales are off ( -20%). The good news is the situation is improving. There is plenty of inventory to greet the winter buyers. Prices are moving higher again at +5% over last year’s price.
The Land stats are following the trend of the improved residential market with sharp decline in inventory and conversely Pending Sales improved at a greater rate. Prices are stable in this report after steep increase the previous month.
Page 6 is the Pending Ratio Summary page. This page offers a quick glance of the Pending Ratio trend for N. Kona Res., Condo, Land and Hawaii Island. This table shows improvement from last year and also since last month. The higher price ranges of the Residential market appear to be the most improved.
The Page 7 Kona Residential Price chart since 1972 is updated with the new 2019 data. This is based on a data pool of similar homes many of which are either new sales or resales over the years. The total number of sales that make up the data pool is over 7,644 in the 23 subdivisions in the study. The result shows the 2019 average price was (plus six percent +6%) or $650,900.
The Griggs Report is published semi-monthly by Michael B. Griggs, PB, GRI
