Aloha Everyone,
This month marked the 10th year of the Griggs Report here on Hawaii Island. Michael Griggs is a statistician and fellow colleague here on the Big Island of Hawaii and is generous with his time and info that he shares with our real estate community. The purpose of the Griggs Report is to provide the reader with accurate market data that gives an up-to-date view of the real estate market trends in N. Kona and Hawaii Island. Price Direction and Rate of Price Change are important indicators most are looking. However, price data is based on past sales. Current market inventory levels and pending sale trends show more current trends and give clues as to future price direction and rate of change. The report uses the “Pending Ratio”, the ratio of Pending Sales to Active Listing Inventory as a measure of this current supply/demand dynamic. By following the Pending Ratio’s over time, the report uses charts to illustrate the trends. The higher the ratio number, the tighter or stronger the market demand versus supply. The North Kona and Hawaii Island real estate markets are in what you might consider and ideal state of good sales activity and consistent sustainable price increases. The big question, is this another one of those market cycles that goes up and then down? I am looking forward to finding out. The biggest clues to the next Peak will come from the Pending Ratio data and San Diego price trends presented in this report.
Here are some highlights from the Report: To request a full copy of the Griggs Report please email Eddie Underwood R(B) at eddie.underwood65@gmail.com or call at 808-345 9797.
- Actually there is a little fireworks with the reporting of the new Residential Median Price. Yikes, with the annual sales of N. Kona homes we find the Median Price at new recovery high of $620,000.
- The price range data at the top of page 2 really illustrates the strength in the current residential market. Currently we see only 14 homes on the market price below $500,000. The flip side of this is the strong showing in the $500,000 to $900,000 price ranges. We see 55 more home sales in that price range.
- The Hawaii Island Chart shows this strong market is not limited to N. Kona. The Island wide Pending Ratio has improved by +35% and the Median Hawaii Island home price increased from $325,000 to $340,000.
- Overall the distressed property inventory on the market or owned by lenders continues a decline. The Percentage of MLS listings that are either REO or Short Sales island wide has declined from an average of all MLS listing to only 8%. In 2012 approximately 40% of the listing inventory was either REO or Short Sales. The Island wide REO count for the four lenders followed shows a decline of 28 REO properties from a year ago. Puna still has the highest number, but has shown the greatest decline.
- Condo Pending Ratio data is showing some pull back from the very strong May numbers. The overall numbers are very good and suggest the price trend will continue upward.
- Recent data for Land is encouraging as well. Median Sale Price is up more than the Residential and Condo prices at +11% over the previous 12 months.
- Page 6 is the Pending Ratio Summary page. It offers a quick glance of the Pending Ratio trend for N. Kona Res., Condo, Land and Hawaii Island. The right half of the table shows the various price range ratios. The Pending Ratios are still showing significant year over year gains. It seems that the North Kona and Island wide data is continue to show a strong market that we have not seen since the recover began. This suggest that with 2017 we have entered a new phase of the market cycle often referred to as the growth phase.
- The Page 7 Kona Residential Price chart since 1972 has been updated with the new 2016 data.
- The Kona vs. West Coast March 2017 data shows San Diego year over year appreciation gains matching Kona’s year over change. Given the fact that San Diego is a leading indicator for what happens in the Kona market this suggests we will see continued appreciation in the +6% to +7% range for the remainder of this year. The Case Shiller Home Price index data lags behind real time by about 2 month hence the data in the charts is only up through April.
The Griggs Report is published bi-monthly by Michael B. Griggs, R (B) of Clark Realty Corporation’s Kailua-Kona office.
