Aloha everyone! The latest Griggs Report is in. The purpose of the Griggs Report is to provide the reader with accurate market data that gives an up-to-date view of the real estate market trends in N. Kona and Hawaii Island. Price Direction and Rate of Price Change are important indicators most are looking. However, price data is based on past sales. Current market inventory levels and pending sale trends show more current trends and give clues as to future price direction and rate of change. The report uses the “Pending Ratio”, the ratio of Pending Sales to Active Listing Inventory as a measure of this current supply/demand dynamic. By following the Pending Ratio’s over time, the report uses charts to illustrate the trends. The higher the ratio number, the tighter or stronger the market demand versus supply.
- The latest data from Hawaii Information Service shows a continued gradual increase in listing of homes in N. Kona. Pending sales have declined since the peak of March. The Pending Ratio shows a fairly steep decline from May 15 to July 15th. This is likely caused by a combination of the volcanic activity, usual May-June seasonal decline and higher Median Price, now $633,500. Escrows have rebounded since last reports low of 65 and now stands at 70.
- The price range data at the top of page 2 shows that the $700,000 to $900,000 price range is contributing the greatest increase in sales numbers.
- The Hawaii Island data also shows increase in inventory and decline in Pending Sales. The West HI Pending Ratio is in decline primarily due to decline in Pending Sales. The East HI Pending Ratio is showing a positive trend. This is likely due to declining inventory related to the Kilauea Eruption.
- Overall the distressed property inventory on the market is showing a slight increasing trend in this report. It will be interesting to follow this going forward to see if it one-time phenomena or a change in trend.
- Condo Pending Ratio is also showing the decline in escrows down from April 30 (88) to July 15 (62). Again, we know from historical trends that this at least partially due to the usual slower May/June visitor months. The improvement in price and sales numbers has pushed the 12-month volume up +$16.0M from the previous twelve months volume. The Median Price is at Recovery high….$304,000.
- Recent Land data shows median price is the same as the previous 12 months and sales numbers are off slightly. Median Price has been relatively stable since 2017. The range has been from $290,000 to $310,000 and is currently $289,000.
- Page 6 is the Pending Ratio Summary page. It offers a quick glance of the Pending Ratio trend for N. Kona Res., Condo, Land and Hawaii Island. The right half of the table shows the various price range ratios. The Pending Ratios are all showing strong a dip in the last month with the exception of Kona Land. Time will tell how much of this new decline can be attributed to the increased volcanic activity.
- The Page 7 Kona Residential Price chart since 1972 has been updated with the new 2017 data. This maintains a data pool of similar homes many of which have resold over the years. The total number of sales that make up the data pool now stands at 7,370 in the 23 subdivisions in the study. The year/year price change for this Mid-level housing group for 2017 is $587,100, up from 2016’s $582,900. This represents a 1% price increase for 2017. This does coincide with the price change data for land, which is the basis for real estate values. Land values on average for 2017 are up +1% from 2016. I would appreciate any input from readers of the report.
- The Kona vs. West Coast will continue when the next San Diego price update is available
If you have questions or would like to a copy of the actual report please call Eddie Underwood R(B) at 808-345-9797 or email at eddie.underwood65@gmail.com
The Griggs Report is published semi-monthly by Michael B. Griggs, PB, GRI
