Aloha Folks,
Just wanted to update you on the latest version of the Griggs Report and provide a market update for the Big Island of Hawaii as we move through the fall of 2018. If you would like a full copy of the report please email me at eddie.underwood65@gmail.com
The purpose of the Griggs Report is to provide the reader with accurate market data that gives an up-to-date view of the real estate market trends in N. Kona and Hawaii Island. Price Direction and Rate of Price Change are important indicators most are looking. However, price data is based on past sales. Current market inventory levels and pending sale trends show more current trends and give clues as to future price direction and rate of change. The report uses the “Pending Ratio”, the ratio of Pending Sales to Active Listing Inventory as a measure of this current supply/demand dynamic. By following the Pending Ratio’s over time, the report uses charts to illustrate the trends. The higher the ratio number, the tighter or stronger the market demand versus supply.
The latest data from Hawaii Information Service for N. Kona residential shows the Active Listing count some from two weeks ago while Pending Sales are off. Both these numbers contribute to lowering the Pending Ratio slightly. Part of this is probably seasonal. The high prices, higher interest rates and economy still recovering from the May eruption are probably factors. The good news is several data indicators show an improving trend in the past two weeks.
The price range data at the top of page 2 shows a decline in year over year sales in the $500,000 to $700,000. Higher prices, slower tourism numbers and decline in inventory are probably contributing to the decline.
The Hawaii Island data shows increase in inventory and decline in Pending Sales. April 30th report showed 977 listings and 481 pending sales. This report shows 1059 listings and 392 pending sales. When looking at these numbers from two weeks ago it appears that things actually starting to improve. Inventory dropped some and Pending sales increased.
Overall the distressed property inventory on the market is showing a slight increase from a year ago.
The Condo stats continue to be strong. With their median price half of that of Residential this is no surprise. The Pending Ratio is well into Seller market level and Average and Median prices are up +6% and 7% from the previous 12 months.
Land stats are showing an inventory pattern similar to condos. The lean inventory and better alternatives in the residential and condo markets seem to be keeping the lid on the land market.
Page 6 is the Pending Ratio Summary page. It offers a quick glance of the Pending Ratio trend for N. Kona Res., Condo, Land and Hawaii Island. The right half of the table shows the various price range ratios. Residential Pending Ratios are off from a year ago while Condo and Land have improved.
The Page 7 Kona Residential Price chart since 1972 has been updated with the new 2017 data. This maintains a data pool of similar homes many of which have resold over the years. The total number of sales that make up the data pool now stands at 7,370 in the 23 subdivisions in the study. The year/year price change for this Mid-level housing group for 2017 is $587,100, up from 2016’s $582,900. This represents a 1% price increase for 2017. This does coincide with the price change data for land, which is the basis for real estate values. Land values on average for 2017 are up +1% from 2016. I would appreciate any input from readers of the report.
The Kona vs. West Coast will be included when new sales data is available from Case Shiller.
Please call or email if there are any questions as I am always happy to discuss our real estate market here in Hawaii. 808-345-9797
or by email at eddie.underwood65@gmail.com
The Griggs Report is published semi-monthly by Michael B. Griggs, PB, GRI
