The new Griggs Report is in!
The purpose of the Griggs Report is to provide the reader with accurate market data that gives an up-to-date view of the real estate market trends in N. Kona and Hawaii Island. Price Direction and Rate of Price Change are important indicators most are looking for. However, price data is based on past sales. Current market inventory levels and pending sale trends show more current trends and give clues as to future price direction and rate of change. The report uses the “Pending Ratio”, the ratio of Pending Sales to Active Listing Inventory as a measure of this current supply/demand dynamic. By following the Pending Ratio’s over time the report uses charts to illustrate the trends. The higher the ratio number, the tighter or stronger the market demand versus supply.
- The latest data from Hawaii Information Service for N. Kona residential shows a significant improvement since last report two weeks ago. Inventory declined by 20 and Pending Sales were up to 120 escrows from 105. Median prices have been fairly stable since last summer. The number of homes sold under $4.0M has also been stable since last summer. That should improve with the new Pending Sales activity. The Pending Sale count of 120 is the highest since 2013.
- The price range data at the top of page 2 shows the 12 months total sales numbers for N. Kona Res. are still down from the previous 12 month. The increase Pending Sales activity we see will boost the sales numbers going forward. In the price ranges up to $700K are now all at Peak Market levels with Pending Ratio over 100. At the opposite end of the price spectrum we see the over $4.0M market still weak at almost half the number of 12-month Sales as a year ago.
- The Hawaii Island Residential Pending Ratio shows a continued increasing trend after declining since the start of the rift zone eruption. This is largely due to the seasonal improvement in Pending Sales and declines in inventory. West HI is leading this improved trend.
- Overall the percentage of listings of REO or Short Sales on the market on average is the same as a year ago. Kamuela is showing by far the greatest improvement with less than 4% of listing being distressed properties.
The REO numbers in Chart 6 show an average decline in properties owned by Fannie Mae, Deutsche Bank, Wells Fargo and Bank of America. The numbers have fallen from last year’s 82 to the current 68. It had been 250 in 2010.
- The Condo stats continue to be strong although in this report with a Pending Ratio in Sellers’ Market territory at 69. Median Prices had been showing +7%. Year/year increase for some time. That has backed off to a more sustainable +5%.
- Land stats do show some improvement with reduced inventory and increased Pending Sales. his should help improve the sales numbers going forward. Sales are off (-28%) from a year ago and Median Price is still showing a (-3%).
- Page 6 is the Pending Ratio Summary page. This page offers a quick glance of the Pending Ratio trend for N. Kona Res., Condo, Land and Hawaii Island. Page 6 Hawaii Island ratio is probably the best indicator of the residential market trend. In this report we see nice continued improvement for Hawaii Island recently but still off from a year ago. The increase represents the seasonal upswing we had been hoping to see.
- The Page 7 Kona Residential Price chart since 1972 has been updated with the new 2018 data. This maintains a data pool of similar homes many of which were new sales or have resold over the years. The total number of sales that make up the data pool now stands at 7,644 in the 23 subdivisions in the study. The year/year price change for this Mid-level housing group for 2018 is $615,100, up from 2017’s $587,100. This represents a 5% price increase for 2018.
- The Kona vs. West Coast shows the improvement in the year over year price data for Kona. This data is up through February and does not reflect the decline since the May eruption. San Diego appears to be going through a price correct since many months of strong price increases.
Both Kona and San Diego are show year over year price gains as of February. Kona is at +3.4% while San Diego was only at +1.1% in February.
For a full copy of the report please email Eddie Underwood R(B) ABR at http://eddie,underwood65@gmail.com
The Griggs Report is published semi-monthly by Michael B. Griggs, PB, GRI
