The new Griggs Report – Kona and Big Island Real State Market Report is in. The purpose of the Griggs Report is to provide the reader with accurate market data that gives an up-to-date view of the real estate market trends in N. Kona and Hawaii Island. Price Direction and Rate of Price Change are important indicators most are looking. However price data is based on past sales. Current market inventory levels and pending sale trends show more current trends and give clues as to future price direction and rate of change. The report uses the “Pending Ratio”, the ratio of Pending Sales to Active Listing Inventory as a measure of this current supply/demand dynamic. By following the Pending Ratio’s over time the report uses charts to illustrate the trends. The higher the ratio number, the tighter or stronger the market demand versus supply.
- The latest data from Hawaii Information Service indicates the Residential market quite active. Inventory is far less than a year ago. The best news is the Pending Ratio has reached a new recovery high of 74. Median Price has resumed an increasing trend. This represents a +6% increase from the previous 12 months. The strong demand should continue to push prices higher. There is some indication that the peak seasonal demand was in March and that is tapering slightly which is typical for April.
- The price range data at the top of page 2 shows a couple of recovery firsts. The Pending Ratio suggest that the Kona Residential market for homes priced up to $700,000 is a hot market with more than a buyer for every active listing. Even the $900,000 to $ 1.5M price range is quite strong. The number of 12 month sales in the over $4.0M price range is holding at the recovery high of 32.
- The Hawaii Island Chart shows the seasonal leveling off in the past 30 days.
- Overall the distressed property inventory on the market continues a decline at a very slow pace. The Percentage of MLS listings that are either REO or Short Sales island wide is unchanged from last year. It now stands at 10% of all listings. In 2012 approximately 40% of the listing inventory was either REO or Short Sales.
- Condo Pending Ratio has taken a nice upswing in the last two months thanks to declining inventory. As mentioned in last report this has moved prices higher. All this improvement in price and sales numbers has pushed the 12 month volume up +$25.0M from the previous twelve months volume.
- Recent Land data shows a weaker market than Residential and Condo. The Pending Ratio and Average and Median Prices show a decline from a year ago.
- Page 6 is the Pending Ratio Summary page. It offers a quick glance of the Pending Ratio trend for N. Kona Res., Condo, Land and Hawaii Island. The right half of the table shows the various price range ratios. The Pending Ratios are showing strong positive numbers over 2017. Hawaii Island Pending Ratio has reached Seller’s market designation of 50 for the first time since the recovery began.
- The Page 7 Kona Residential Price chart since 1972 has been updated with the new 2017 data. This maintains a data pool of similar homes many of which have resold over the years. The total number of sales that make up the data pool now stands at 7,370 in the 23 subdivisions in the study. The year/year price change for this Mid-level housing group for 2017 is $587,100, up from 2016’s $582,900. This represents a 1% price increase for 2017. This does coincide with the price change data for land, which is the basis for real estate values. Land values on average for 2017 are up +1% from 2016.
- The Kona vs. West Coast will resume when updated San Diego data is available from Case Shiller Home Price Index.
If you have any questions or want to request a copy of the full report Please call Eddie Underwood R(B) or Shannon Underwood P(B) at Hawaii Coast Realty 808-929-7063.
The Griggs Report is published and graciously provided semi-monthly by Michael B. Griggs, PB, GRI