The purpose of the Griggs Report is to provide the reader with accurate market data that gives an up-to-date view of the real estate market trends in N. Kona and Hawaii Island. Price Direction and Rate of Price Change are important indicators most are looking. However price data is based on past sales. Current market inventory levels and pending sale trends show more current trends and give clues as to future price direction and rate of change. The report uses the “Pending Ratio”, the ratio of Pending Sales to Active Listing Inventory as a measure of this current supply/demand dynamic. By following the Pending Ratio’s over time the report uses charts to illustrate the trends. The higher the ratio number, the tighter or stronger the market demand versus supply.
- Moving toward the busy winter season we see the residential inventory far below the 252 listings of last year. Current inventory stands at 166. Median has been stable since the summer. Currently Median Price for homes under $4.0M is $623,000.
- The price range data at the top of page 2 shows the most active price range is $500,000 to $700,000. This price range represents 38% of all home sales in Kona currently.
- The Hawaii Island Chart shows Pending Ratio in West Hawaii trending higher, while East Hawaii shows slight decline. For the island overall the ratio is trending down slightly as inventory increases.
- Overall the distressed property inventory on the market continues a decline at a very slow pace. The Percentage of MLS listings that are either REO or Short Sales island wide has declined (-1%) from last year. It now stands at 9% of all listings on average. In 2012 approximately 40% of the listing inventory was either REO or Short Sales It is currently 8%. N. Kona is actually showing a slight increase in distressed properties both in the MLS REO & SS data and the TMK REO data.
- Condo Pending Ratio is way up from last year thanks to big decline in inventory and big increase in Pending Sales. The Median Price has increased yr./yr. by +4% with current data. This is a healthy, very sustainable increase. Chart 7-Kona Condo’s is showing decline in Pending Ratio and Median Price in the past two months.
- Recent data for Land shows improvement from last year’s numbers, but not to the extent of Res and Condo. Pending Ratio yr./yr. increase and sales data increases show the land market stable compared to Residential and Condo.
- Page 6 is the Pending Ratio Summary page. It offers a quick glance of the Pending Ratio trend for N. Kona Res., Condo, Land and Hawaii Island. The right half of the table shows the various price range ratios. The Pending Ratios are still showing significant year over year gains. It seems that the North Kona and Island wide data is continue to show a strong market that we have not seen since the recover began. This suggest that with 2017 we have entered a new phase of the market cycle often referred to as the growth phase.
- The Page 7 Kona Residential Price chart since 1972 has been updated with the new 2016 data.
- The Kona vs. West Coast March 2017 shows the Kona and the San Diego showing almost identical year over year price increases at 7.8% and 7.75%. Since San Diego is a leading indicator for Kona price direction we should expect to see this 7% or greater price increase should continue well into the new year. The Kona vs. San Diego data in this report is updated to September 2017.
For a full copy of the report please email Eddie Underwood R(B) eddie.underwood65@gmail.com
The Griggs Report is published semi-monthly by our dear friend to our real estate community here on the Big Island Michael B. Griggs, R (B) of Clark Realty Corporation’s Kailua-Kona office.
