The purpose of the Griggs Report is to provide the reader with accurate market data that gives an up-to-date view of the real estate market trends in N. Kona and Hawaii Island. Price Direction and Rate of Price Change are important indicators most are looking for. However, price data is based on past sales. Current market inventory levels and pending sale trends show more current trends and give clues as to future price direction and rate of change. The report uses the “Pending Ratio”, the ratio of Pending Sales to Active Listing Inventory as a measure of this current supply/demand dynamic. By following the Pending Ratio’s over time, the report uses charts to illustrate the trends. The higher the ratio number, the tighter or stronger the market demand versus supply.
- The latest data from Hawaii Information Service for N. Kona residential shows Pending Sales numbers a little lower than two weeks ago. This is to be expected this time of year after the busy winter season. The 30-day sales number remain at a very high level. This is a reflection of that busy winter market activity and continued good activity. Median prices have been showing slight declining trend since February, but in this report trend a little higher. The current level of home sales should give quite a boost to the 12-month sales numbers going forward.
- The price range data at the top of page 2 shows the number of annualized sales is off in the under $500,000 range due to lack of inventory. One surprise is the increase in sales under $400K. Perhaps this is resulting from Banks clearing their books of distressed properties. The opposite is true in the over $900,000 price ranges. Here we see too much inventory for too few buyers. Sales are off approximately (-25%). It is likely that the new vacation rental rules have hurt the appeal of owning such properties?
- The Hawaii Island Residential Pending Ratio is flat after a nice seasonal upswing.
- Overall the percentage of listings of REO or Short Sales on the market on average is down 3% from a year ago. Kamuela is showing the greatest improvement with less than 6% of listing being distressed properties.
The REO numbers in Chart 6 show an average decline in properties owned by Fannie Mae, Deutsche Bank, Wells Fargo and Bank of America. The numbers have fallen from last year’s 91 to the current 66. It had been 250 in 2010.
- The Condo stats continue to be strong with a Pending Ratio in Sellers’ Market territory at 68. Median Prices had been showing +7%. year/year increase for some time. That has backed off to a more sustainable +3%.
- Land stats do show continued improvement in Pending Sales. This is helping improve the 12-month sales numbers. Median Price are off by (-1%). Hopefully, the strong Pending Sales numbers will continue.
- Page 6 is the Pending Ratio Summary page. This page offers a quick glance of the Pending Ratio trend for N. Kona Res., Condo, Land and Hawaii Island. Page 6 Hawaii Island ratio is probably the best indicator of the residential market trend. In this report we see nice continued improvement for Hawaii Island recently but still off from a year ago.
- The Page 7 Kona Residential Price chart since 1972 has been updated with the new 2018 data. This maintains a data pool of similar homes many of which were new sales or have resold over the years. The total number of sales that make up the data pool now stands at 7,644 in the 23 subdivisions in the study. The year/year price change for this Mid-level housing group for 2018 is $615,100, up from 2017’s $587,100. This represents a 5% price increase for 2018.
- The Kona vs. West Coast is update through April 30, 2019. It is amazing to see how closely the San Diego current price trends match Kona. San Diego’s year/year appreciation has dropped back to only + .7% from over +2% , while Kona has dropped back to only +.96% from over +2%.
Most of the other cities in the Case Shiller home price index are running around +2.5%.
For a full copy of the report please email Eddie Underwood R(B) at email@example.com
The Griggs Report is published semi-monthly by Michael B. Griggs R(B) GRI