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Griggs Report Hawaii Island Real Estate Market Report Fall 2019

The purpose of the Griggs Report is to provide the reader with accurate market data that gives an up-to-date view of the real estate market trends in N. Kona and Hawaii Island. Price Direction and Rate of Price Change are important indicators most are looking for. However price data is based on past sales. Current market inventory levels and pending sale trends show more current trends and  give  clues as to future price direction and  rate of change. The report uses the “Pending Ratio”, the ratio of Pending Sales to Active Listing Inventory as a measure of this current supply/demand dynamic. By following the Pending Ratio’s over time the report uses charts to illustrate the trends. The higher the ratio number, the tighter or stronger the market demand versus supply.

  1. The latest data from Hawaii Information Service for N. Kona residential reaffirms that the market is still strong and active. We see the Kona residential inventory making the seasonal turn upward with an increase of 16 in the last 2 weeks. Pending sales have turned lower with this slow pre-winter time of year. Most importantly we see the total 12 month sales for homes priced up to $4.0M at a new high of 530.. This is reminiscent of the numbers seen in 2002-2003 leading up to the last market peak. The increase in inventory and reduced Pending Sales has caused the Pending Ratio to decline from 71 to 53 in two weeks.

 

  1. The price range data at the top of page 2  shows  50% of the sales fall in the $400K to  $700K price range. There are only 33 homes listed under $700K.

 

  1. The Hawaii Island  Residential Pending Ratio  is exactly the same in  East and West HI at 37. This is up slightly from this time last year.

 

  1. Overall the percentage of listings of REO or Short Sales on the market continues to decline. Waimea is now showing only 4%  listing being distressed properties. The average for all five market areas is 7%.

The REO numbers in Chart 6 show an average decline in properties owned by Fannie Mae, Deutsche Bank, Wells Fargo and Bank of America. The numbers have fallen from last year’s 82 to the current 68. It had been 250 in 2010.

 

  1. The Condo stats continue to be strong  with a Pending Ratio in Sellers’ Market territory at a new high of 81. Median Prices are  showing  +3%. year/year increase. The inventory of active condos under $1.5M  now stands at only 98, down 17% from last year.

 

  1. Like Residential and Condo the Land stats show a shrinking inventory. The continued strong sales numbers will certainly contribute to further decline in inventory and price pressure. Median Price has turned positive after many months  showing decline. It now is up a strong

+9%.  Pending sales declined this past month.

 

  1. Page 6 is the Pending Ratio Summary page. This page offers a quick glance of the Pending Ratio trend for N. Kona Res.,  Condo, Land and  Hawaii Island.  In this report we see a strong year over year improvement in all categories except land.

 

  1. The Page 7 Kona Residential Price chart since 1972 has been  updated with the new 2018 data. This maintains a data pool of similar homes many of which were new sales or have resold over the years. The total number of sales that make up the data pool now stands at 7,644 in the 23 subdivisions in the study. The year/year price change  for this Mid-level housing group for 2018 is $615,100, up from 2017’s  $587,100. This represents a 5% price increase for 2018.

 

  1. The Kona vs. West Coast  is updated with sales date through August 2019. San Diego shows 2.34% price appreciation compared to Kona’s 1.27%. Both have been improving. The stronger numbers in San Diego bode well for the future of the Kona price trend.

The Griggs Report is published semi-monthly by Michael B. Griggs, PB, GRI