Aloha,
The purpose of the Griggs Report is to provide the reader with accurate market data that gives an up-to-date view of the real estate market trends in N. Kona and Hawaii Island. Price Direction and Rate of Price Change are important indicators most are looking. However price data is based on past sales. Current market inventory levels and pending sale trends show more current trends and give clues as to future price direction and rate of change. The report uses the “Pending Ratio”, the ratio of Pending Sales to Active Listing Inventory as a measure of this current supply/demand dynamic. By following the Pending Ratio’s over time the report uses charts to illustrate the trends. The higher the ratio number, the tighter or stronger the market demand versus supply.
The latest residential data remains quite positive. Inventory is stable, pending sales up from this time last year and median price up 8%. Sales numbers and price have backed off minimally from last report.
The price range data at the top of page 2 shows a surprising increase in active listing in the under $400,000 price range. At the same time pending sales have declined. This very low end of the market seems to have lost it’s luster. The most active price range is the $500,000 to $700,000 range, which is showing an increase in sales of 38 from a year ago.
The Hawaii Island Chart shows Pending Ratio improvement in both East and West Hawaii in the past month.
Overall the distressed property inventory on the market continues a decline. The Percentage of MLS listings that are either REO or Short Sales island wide has declined (-2%) from last year. It now stands at 8% of all listings on average. In 2012 approximately 40% of the listing inventory was either REO or Short Sales. It is currently 8%. The Island wide REO count for the four lenders followed is down (-5%) from a year ago.
Condo Pending Ratio data has resumed its upward trend. Active inventory is down (-15%) and Pending Sales are up +19% year over year. Again shortage of inventory will be a continuing issue and will put upward pressure on price. Current Median Price increase is up +6%.
Recent data for Land shows improvement from last year’s numbers, but not to the extent of Res and Condo. The number of Pending Sales are up substantially from last year, +47%. Annual sales are also up nicely.
Page 6 is the Pending Ratio Summary page. It offers a quick glance of the Pending Ratio trend for N. Kona Res., Condo, Land and Hawaii Island. The right half of the table shows the various price range ratios. The Pending Ratios are still showing significant year over year gains. It seems that the North Kona and Island wide data is continue to show a strong market that we have not seen since the recover began. This suggest that with 2017 we have entered a new phase of the market cycle often referred to as the growth phase.
The Page 7 Kona Residential Price chart since 1972 has been updated with the new 2016 data.
The Kona vs. West Coast March 2017 data shows San Diego year over year appreciation gains matching Kona’s year over change. Given the fact that San Diego is a leading indicator for what happens in the Kona market this suggests we will see continued appreciation in the +6% to +7% range for the remainder of this year. The Case Shiller Home Price index data lags behind real time by about 2 month hence the data in the charts is only up through April.
For a complete copy of the Griggs Report. Please email Eddie Underwood R(B) at eddie.underwood65@gmail.com or call 808-345-9696.
The Griggs Report is published bi-monthly and graciously shared by Michael B. Griggs, R (B) of Clark Realty Corporation’s Kailua-Kona office.
