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Big Island of Hawaii End of Year Market Report

The purpose of the Griggs Report is to provide the reader with accurate market data that gives an up-to-date view of the real estate market trends in N. Kona and Hawaii Island. Price Direction and Rate of Price Change are important indicators most are looking for. However, price data is based on past sales. Current market inventory levels and pending sale trends show more current trends and give clues as to future price direction and rate of change. The report uses the “Pending Ratio”, the ratio of Pending Sales to Active Listing Inventory as a measure of this current supply/demand dynamic. By following the Pending Ratio’s over time, the report uses charts to illustrate the trends. The higher the ratio number, the tighter or stronger the market demand versus supply. 1. The latest data from Hawaii Information Service for N. Kona residential shows the Active Listing remaining up 25% from a year ago. Pending Sales are holding in the mid 70’s range. The Median Prices is up a modest +2% from the same date in 2017. The greater inventory with only slight price increase should go over well with the winter market home shoppers. 2. The price range data at the top of page 2 shows a decline in year over year sales down in all price ranges except the $700k to $900k range. Total annual sales are off from 2017’s, 543 homes sold in 3-7. The 2018 period shows 483. The SE rift zone eruption undoubtedly shares a substantial portion of blame for this decline. Affordability has also been an issue. 3. The Hawaii Island data shows increase in inventory and decline in Pending Sales. April 30th report showed 977 listings and 481 pending sales. This report shows increasing inventory with 1167 active listings and continued decline with 323 pending sales. This is largely a seasonal result as sellers place more homes on the market to greet the busy winter season. Pending sales should improve with the New Year. 4. Overall the distressed property inventory on the market is showing a little change from a year ago. It is interesting to see a large decline in Waimea with a corresponding increase in Waikoloa. I this report we see the percentage of REO or SHORT SALES are down from a year ago. 5. The Condo stats continue to be strong. One reason could be that Condo prices are still well below their last peak price of 2006 unlike Residential which are at that 2006 peak level. Buyers might rightfully feel there is more upside for prices in the condo market, besides simple affordability. The Pending Ratio is well into Seller market level and Average and Median prices are up +8% and 10% from the previous 12 months. 6. Land stats are mixed. The Pending Ratio is up substantial from a year ago due to lower inventory and stronger Pending Sales numbers. We see sales numbers are off from a year ago. Looking back a year in Chart 9 we see both Median Price and Pending Ratio have been relatively stable. 7. Page 6 is the Pending Ratio Summary page. It offers a quick glance of the Pending Ratio trend for N. Kona Res., Condo, Land and Hawaii Island. Chart 6 shows a season dip in the Res and Condo ratios. This should reverse next month. Land improved slightly. 8. The Page 7 Kona Residential Price chart since 1972 has been updated with the new 2018 data. This maintains a data pool of similar homes many of which have resold over the years. The total number of sales that make up the data pool now stands at 7,370 in the 23 subdivisions in the study. The year/year price change for this Mid-level housing group for 2017 is $587,100, up from 2016’s $582,900. This represents a 1% price increase for 2017. 9. The Kona vs. West Coast will return when the October price information becomes available from S & P CoreLogic Case Sheller Home Price Indices.